The Colorado Avalanche take a 2-0 series lead to Los Angeles on Thursday night for Game 3 of their NHL first-round playoff series against the Kings. Puck drop is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on TNT. Crypto.com Arena is sold out. The Avalanche are favored at -155 on the moneyline. The underlying analytics across the first two games strongly support the market's view that Colorado should continue to win on the road.
Game 3 of a 2-0 series is where a team down in the series either steadies itself or begins the decline toward elimination. No NHL team has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and very few have recovered from 0-2. The Kings' path to extending the series runs through Anton Forsberg, whose 94 save percentage performance through two games has been the difference between losing close and getting blown out.
The Underlying Numbers
Colorado has dominated the play through two games by every meaningful underlying metric. The Avalanche have a 56.2 percent Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, meaning they have generated 56.2 percent of the shot attempts when both teams are at full strength. They have a 59.3 percent expected goals for (xGF) percentage, which weights shot attempts by the probability each attempt would have become a goal based on location and type.
| Metric | Avalanche | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Series record | Lead 2-0 | Trail 0-2 |
| 5-on-5 Corsi For% | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 5-on-5 xGF% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Game 3 moneyline | -155 | +130 |
| Puck line | -1.5 (+160) | +1.5 (-200) |
| Series over/under | Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-105) |
The Kings have been held to just two goals across the two games. They have generated 5.69 expected goals and 20 high-danger scoring chances, meaning the Avalanche defense has limited not only the quantity but also the quality of the Kings' attacks. Los Angeles's top line has been neutralized. The Kings' second and third lines have generated essentially nothing. The reason the series is not already effectively over is entirely because of goaltending.
The Forsberg Problem
Anton Forsberg has posted a .939 save percentage through two games of the series. That is exceptional playoff goaltending. It is also not sustainable. Forsberg's career save percentage across 124 games over the past four years is .901, which is solid but unspectacular. The .939 figure through two games is closer to the performance of an elite playoff goaltender than to Forsberg's established level.
The statistical correction ahead of Forsberg is the single biggest driver of the moneyline and puck-line bets in Game 3. When a goaltender is playing above his sustained level, the natural expectation is regression to the mean, particularly as the sample size grows. An 84-shot sample across two games is small enough that Forsberg's performance could stay elevated. An additional 35-to-40 shots in Game 3 is roughly when the regression begins to weigh more heavily on the outcome.
"His .901 save percentage across 124 games the past four years is solid, but unspectacular, and it's also far more reflective of the skillset than his .939 mark in Round 1."
Neil Parker, Covers.com
The Scott Wedgewood Parallel
Colorado's own goaltender has been unsustainable in the opposite direction. Scott Wedgewood has a .960 save percentage through two games with 3.69 goals saved above expected. That level of goaltending is statistically implausible over any extended sample. If Wedgewood regresses at the same time Forsberg regresses, the net effect on the series is roughly neutral: both teams give up more goals than they have in the first two games.
But the net shot-share picture still favors Colorado substantially. If you take a series where Colorado generates 59.3 percent of the expected goals and then adjust both goaltenders back toward their established levels, Colorado scores more goals and Los Angeles scores more goals too, but the gap between them narrows rather than flips. The Avalanche's structural advantage in creating quality chances is what keeps the moneyline at -155 rather than moving closer to even.
The Martin Necas Question
Colorado winger Martin Necas is the key individual storyline to watch for Game 3. Necas scored 38 goals during the regular season, then posted 100 points for the full campaign. Through two playoff games, he has one assist. He has been on the ice for 4.93 expected goals but has zero goals. He has recorded 17 shots and eight high-danger scoring chances, and none of them have gone in.
The Covers.com same-game parlay for Game 3 includes Necas over 0.5 points at +195 odds, which represents the analytical expectation that a 38-goal scorer with 1.22 individual expected goals across two games will eventually find the net. The specific timing of that breakthrough is the open question. Game 3 in Los Angeles, with the Kings' underlying struggles persisting, is a reasonable place to expect it.
"Colorado winger Martin Necas is the same-game parlay rounds. He's paced the club in individual expected goals during the series (1.22), and he's also failed to find the back of the net in five consecutive games dating back to the regular season despite recording 17 shots and eight high-danger scoring chances."
Neil Parker, Covers.com, April 22, 2026
The Kings' Path to Extending the Series
Los Angeles needs three things to happen in Game 3. First, Forsberg needs to maintain his current level. Second, the Kings' top line needs to generate real scoring chances rather than grinding along the perimeter. Third, someone on the Kings other than Quinton Byfield needs to score.
Byfield has been the Kings' most consistent offensive player in the series, which is consistent with his regular-season role as a 30-goal contributor. The problem is that the Avalanche have been willing to focus defensive attention on Byfield's line because the rest of the Kings' offense has not punished them for doing so. Unless Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, or another secondary scorer steps up in Game 3, the Colorado defensive structure will remain intact.
The crowd at Crypto.com Arena is the one structural variable that could help. NHL playoff home crowds are louder and more energized than almost any other sports audience, and a raucous first period can push a home team to a quick start that changes the tenor of the entire game. The Kings have the kind of fanbase that delivers that environment. Whether the team on the ice can translate it into a lead is the open question.
What to Watch
Three specific in-game variables will determine the outcome. The first is whether the Avalanche open the game with the same energy they showed in Games 1 and 2, which forced early Kings turnovers and tilted ice time in Colorado's favor. The second is whether the Kings get meaningful offensive contribution from any player other than Byfield in the first period. The third is the first Colorado breakaway: if Necas or another Avalanche scorer beats Forsberg on a clean rush in the first half of the game, the series dynamics shift quickly.
Beyond Game 3, the series calendar continues with Game 4 in Los Angeles and potential Game 5, 6, and 7 returns to Denver if the Kings extend it. A Colorado sweep through Game 4 would close the series on Saturday. A Kings Game 3 win would at minimum extend the series to Game 5.
For related coverage, see our reporting on the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs running concurrently, on the Premier League managerial upheaval the same week, and on the MLB story that has shared the sports spotlight.
Sources
- Avalanche vs Kings Prediction, Picks & Odds for Thursday's NHL Playoffs Game 3 - Yahoo Sports
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche - April 23, 2026 - Bleacher Report
- Quinton Byfield Game 3 Preview vs. Avalanche - iHeart/Fox Sports 990
- Artemi Panarin Game 3 Preview vs. Avalanche - iHeart Sports San Diego
