Economy news on GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, unemployment data, trade relations, and the global economic forces affecting your finances.
Oil markets shrugged off the first day of Trump's Hormuz blockade, but the economic math says retaliation, Chinese tanker leakage, and Fed policy risk all skew the downside.
The IMF upgraded India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 percent on April 14, even as it cut the global outlook to 3.1 percent on Iran war fallout and raised tariff risks.
The World Bank's April 2026 South Asia Economic Update projects 6.3% regional growth, a deceleration driven by global energy market dislocation.
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, nearly tripling the 65,000 consensus estimate. Unemployment edged down to 4.3% as healthcare led with 76,000 new positions. The report does not settle the rate debate, but removes the recession tail risk.
A three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade heard arguments April 10 on whether Trump's 10% global tariff, imposed under a 1974 trade law, is legally valid after the Supreme Court struck down the broader IEEPA-based tariffs in February.
March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year as gasoline prices surged 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly increase. The first full month since the US-Iran conflict began, the energy shock complicates the Fed's hold-or-hike calculus.
U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, crushing the 65,000 consensus forecast. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% as healthcare led sector gains with 76,000 new positions.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the April 14 World Economic Outlook will downgrade 2026 growth from 3.3% and raise inflation projections as Brent crude hits $110 and Hormuz stays blocked.
One year after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, the effective rate has jumped from 2.4% to 12-13.6%. Independent economists estimate 94% of costs have been borne by US consumers and businesses.
Goldman Sachs is deploying Claude-powered agents for trade accounting. Lloyds targets £100M in value from enterprise-wide agentic AI. Banking is crossing from AI as tool to AI as autonomous colleague across finance's biggest institutions.
CME FedWatch data shows markets now price a 52% chance of at least one rate hike in 2026 as Brent crude above $100 and tariff-driven import costs push inflation expectations higher.
Goldman Sachs economists lifted their US recession probability to 30% after Brent crude topped $105 a barrel, warning that sustained energy costs will squeeze consumer spending.
