The 2026 NFL Draft begins in Pittsburgh on , and Adam Schefter's pre-draft intel laid out a board that looks nothing like the one most mock drafts produced a month ago. A.J. Brown is still on track to end up in New England, just not this week. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love could become the first running back drafted in the top five since Saquon Barkley in 2018. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has emerged as the fulcrum of Round 1 after Fernando Mendoza's trip to No. 1 locked in place. And for the first time since the 2016 draft cycle, more teams around the league are telling agents they want to trade down than up. The combination points to a first round with fewer trades than last year's five, a quarterback run that stretches into Round 2, and a dominant trade market for established veterans that continues beyond Thursday night.
Two events last weekend reset the front of the board. The Giants traded All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II to the Cincinnati Bengals on for the No. 10 pick, the first time since 1966 the Bengals have traded a top-10 pick for an established veteran. And Schefter's draft-eve intel, dropped early Monday, began filling in what the Giants plan to do with picks five and 10 now that they hold consecutive top-10 selections.
A.J. Brown to New England Is Tracking, Just Parked
The A.J. Brown trade is essentially negotiated in principle but waiting on the calendar. A deal executed after splits his $40 million cap charge across two seasons, a mechanical accounting trigger that both sides want to capture before finalizing terms. The Patriots, per Schefter's sourcing, remain the frontrunner and told league contacts they will "definitely be engaging" once the June date passes.
The move fits Philadelphia's actual offseason pattern more than any pre-draft chatter has suggested. Howie Roseman has already added Hollywood Brown on , Elijah Moore on , and Dontayvion Wicks on . Three receivers in less than a month is the operational tell that a departure is coming. The Eagles want draft capital in 2027 and 2028, not this year, and Brown for a pick package centered on a future first is the structure most executives expect.
| Date | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| March 17, 2026 | Signed Hollywood Brown | Receiver room depth |
| March 24, 2026 | Signed Elijah Moore | Slot replacement |
| April 10, 2026 | Signed Dontayvion Wicks | Outside receiver insurance |
| June 1+, 2026 | A.J. Brown trade (expected) | Cap charge splits across two years |
Roseman is also checking on Vikings linebacker Jonathan Greenard as a potential draft-weekend pickup. Greenard's 2024 production, 12 sacks, dropped to three sacks in 12 games last season with a 23.3% pass-rush win rate. Minnesota wants a premium Day 2 pick, and Philadelphia has three of them: 54, 68, and 98. The Vikings are the type of roster that benefits from front-loading draft capital to reset a cap sheet, and Greenard is the asset most likely to move by Friday night.
Jeremiyah Love and the Running Back Tectonic Shift
If the intel is right, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is the story of Round 1. Multiple team sources described Love as the best player in the class, full stop, which is a sentence that is extremely hard to get a scout to say about a running back in 2026. The realistic draft range runs from No. 3, where the Arizona Cardinals are taking exploratory trade-up calls, to No. 7, where the Washington Commanders could pair him with Jayden Daniels.
"Jadarian Price is the best pure runner in the draft, but Love is the best pure player in the draft."Unnamed NFL coach, speaking to ESPN ahead of the 2026 draft
The last running back drafted in the top five was Saquon Barkley at No. 2 by the Giants in 2018. Barkley's career arc, including his Super Bowl LIX run with Philadelphia after leaving New York, is precisely the template teams want to replicate with Love. The running back position has been devalued in draft analytics for a decade, and the shift back toward high-pick running backs is less a market correction than a bet that a specific type of player, the three-down back with receiving and pass-protection chops, is worth the premium that analytics models never captured.
Washington is the matchup that would move the most league-wide needles. The Commanders added Rachaad White and Jerome Ford in free agency but still have the thinnest back-end rotation among playoff-caliber rosters. A Love-Daniels pairing would give Washington the most dangerous backfield and quarterback duo in the NFC East. Arizona's interest at No. 3 is more about trade leverage than a standing pick, but the calls are genuine.
Fernando Mendoza Is Locked to the Raiders at No. 1
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been the expected No. 1 overall pick for several weeks, and Schefter's intel confirms the Raiders are not moving off him. Mendoza is 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds with an arm length of 31⅞ inches and 9½-inch hands. The physical comp most commonly thrown around in scouting rooms is Matt Ryan. The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins this offseason specifically to reduce the year-one pressure on Mendoza and let him develop on a delayed timeline.
The Mendoza storyline that got the most traction at the combine was a FaceTime with Tom Brady that Mendoza later said he had "messed up," a very specific form of rookie anxiety that most scouting reports treated as a positive rather than a negative. The quarterback who is willing to openly say he stumbled in a casual conversation with Brady is not the quarterback who frauds himself into thinking he has figured it out before his first regular-season snap.
The Ty Simpson Mystery
Alabama's Ty Simpson is the Round 1 variable that every front office is trying to solve. He projects as the second quarterback off the board after Mendoza and could go anywhere from the Jets at No. 16 to the Cardinals at No. 34. The Rams had been eyeing him at No. 29 before trading the pick to Kansas City in the Trent McDuffie deal, which subtracted one of his most natural landing spots.
The Jets and Cardinals are the best fits by system and roster need. New York has picks 16 and 33, which gives the Jets a natural package to move up a few spots if another team threatens to take Simpson between picks 17 and 30. Arizona holds pick 34 and could simply wait. The Steelers, with pick 21 and 12 picks total in the draft, are the sleeper. Pittsburgh met with Simpson, Drew Allar, and Carson Beck at the combine and is waiting on an Aaron Rodgers decision that has not yet arrived.
The Simpson factor also highlights a structural issue with the entire 2026 class: NIL money is aging up the prospect pool. Chiefs GM Brett Veach said Kansas City dropped 25-plus players off its board when underclassmen chose to stay in school. Front offices league-wide are saying the same thing. The practical result is a class that leans experienced but lower-ceiling, with fewer 21-year-old prospects whose upside justifies top-10 picks.
Why Round 1 May See Fewer Trades Than Last Year
More teams are signaling they want to move down than up, which is the kind of supply-demand mismatch that kills trade volume. The Cleveland Browns are openly shopping No. 6, having picks 6 and 24 as part of a nine-pick haul. An AFC scout quoted in Schefter's reporting said the class "is bad enough where people don't want to pick after a certain spot," which is the best one-sentence summary of why teams are not lining up to move up.
| Year | Round 1 trades |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 |
| 2023 | 7 |
| 2024 | 5 |
| 2025 | 5 |
| 2026 (projected) | 2-4 |
The team most likely to move up is the Dallas Cowboys. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer was direct at his pre-draft media availability. "What I love about the draft is the unpredictability of it," he said, which is the coach-speak equivalent of "we are not showing our hand." Dallas owns pick 12 and pick 20 and could package one of them to move into the 5-to-10 range if the right prospect, most likely Arvell Reese in a slide scenario, is available.
The Browns also have a backup plan. Cleveland's 2025 trade of DeAndre Hopkins-era assets produced draft capital that head coach Todd Monken referenced openly when asked about Mac Jones. "I would just tell Kyle to cut him. And then we'll see what the market is," Monken told reporters. That is a coach confident his roster is not dependent on any single trade target.
The Larger Trade Market Doesn't Stop at Round 1
Beyond A.J. Brown and Greenard, the players league sources expect to move in the next 10 days include Anthony Richardson Sr., Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Kyle Pitts Sr., Kenny Moore II, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Keon Coleman, and Brandon Aiyuk. Mac Jones is specifically not expected to move, per Schefter. Kyle Pitts is the most interesting of that list. Atlanta's new general manager Ian Cunningham has been candid about the team's willingness to listen.
"It's my job as the general manager to do what's best for the organization. Kyle is a great player. We've seen his skill set. Also, it's my job to listen."Ian Cunningham, Atlanta Falcons general manager, on Kyle Pitts Sr.
The Denver Broncos' Sean Payton also commented directly on the trade logic that defined his team's offseason. "We spent a lot of time looking at that selection," Payton said of the pick traded for Jaylen Waddle. "We could safely say that pick would've been one of these seven or eight players. We didn't feel like that would help us as much as Jaylen Waddle." That sentence is the clearest public articulation of why established production is priced higher than draft-pick optionality this cycle.
What to Watch Thursday Night
Three decision points will define the front half of Round 1. First, whether Arizona stays at No. 3 and takes Love or trades back. Second, whether the Jets take an edge player at No. 2 (David Bailey) or a different profile, which reshapes the rest of the top ten. Third, whether any team moves up ahead of Washington at No. 7 to secure Love. If all three variables break Cleveland's way, the Browns at No. 6 become the draft's most valuable trade asset and the front office's willingness to move down gets tested in real time.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
Round 1 begins Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh. Rounds 2 and 3 follow Friday night, and Rounds 4 through 7 are scheduled for Saturday.
Who is going No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the expected No. 1 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. Mendoza, 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds, has been compared physically and stylistically to former Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins this offseason to reduce first-year pressure on Mendoza.
Is A.J. Brown getting traded?
A trade is expected on or after June 1, 2026, when his cap charge can be split across two seasons. The Patriots are the frontrunner. The Eagles have already added Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore, and Dontayvion Wicks in recent weeks, which most league sources read as preparation for Brown's departure.
Could a running back go in the top five for the first time since Saquon Barkley?
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love could go as high as No. 3 to Arizona. The floor for Love is projected at No. 7 to Washington. Saquon Barkley went No. 2 to the Giants in 2018, the last running back drafted in the top five.
Where is Ty Simpson going in the 2026 draft?
Simpson projects as the second quarterback off the board. The best fits are the New York Jets (picks 16 and 33), the Arizona Cardinals at No. 34, and potentially the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21, though Pittsburgh is waiting on Aaron Rodgers. The Rams were connected at No. 29 before trading the pick to Kansas City.
