Goldman Raises Recession Odds to 30% on Oil Price Surge
Goldman Sachs economists lifted their US recession probability to 30% after Brent crude topped $105 a barrel, warning that sustained energy costs will squeeze consumer spending.

Economy news on GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, unemployment data, trade relations, and the global economic forces affecting your finances.
Goldman Sachs economists lifted their US recession probability to 30% after Brent crude topped $105 a barrel, warning that sustained energy costs will squeeze consumer spending.

The OECD projects the United Kingdom will suffer the largest GDP hit among G7 nations from the Iran conflict, with growth slashed to 0.6% as energy costs and trade disruption bite.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter GDP growth down to an annualized 0.7%, while core PCE inflation was marked up to 3.1%, complicating the Fed's rate path.

The OECD reversed its earlier growth upgrade for 2026, warning that the Iran conflict has added 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and shaved GDP forecasts worldwide.

The Fed faces a classic stagflation bind: oil-driven inflation argues for rate hikes while a slowing jobs market argues for cuts. Jerome Powell's room to maneuver is narrowing fast.

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Energy sector salaries range from $45,000 for entry-level technicians to over $140,000 for petroleum engineers, with renewable energy roles narrowing the gap as the clean energy transition accelerates.

A business plan maps out an organization's overall strategy and direction. A business case justifies a specific investment. Understanding when to use each is essential for effective decision-making.

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