The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs has been historically chaotic in the Western Conference and is producing meaningful upset math in the East. Through three games of multiple series, the brackets look nothing like the regular-season standings suggested they should, and the question has shifted from "who is the favorite to win the title" to a more immediate and more interesting one: which of the tournament's presumed heavyweights are about to get sent home early?
In Atlanta on , the Hawks edged the Knicks 109-108 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. In Los Angeles, LeBron James produced one of the more remarkable playoff sequences of his 23rd NBA season in back-to-back wins over a Houston Rockets team that entered the first round as the higher seed. And in Denver, the Nuggets fell to the Timberwolves to drop to 1-2, with Nikola Jokic shooting 7-of-26 in a blowout loss that raised real questions about whether this dynasty has a ceiling problem when matched up against physical interior defense. The Athletic's Bounce Newsletter framed the moment directly: is it time for the Knicks and Nuggets to panic?
Hawks-Knicks: Atlanta's Three-Game Statement
The Knicks entered this series as the No. 3 seed with a 53-29 record, built around a continuity core that has played together for years. Atlanta entered as the No. 6 seed after a late-season surge, having acquired CJ McCollum from Washington in January in the Trae Young trade. The series was supposed to be a validation run for New York. Three games in, it is anything but.
Game 1 went to the Knicks, 113-102, with Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson combining for the majority of New York's offense. Game 2 was the pivot point. The Knicks led by 14 after three quarters, a margin that translated historically to a 40-1 postseason record. The only prior exception was Reggie Miller scoring 25 in the fourth quarter for Indiana in the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals.
Atlanta made it the second exception. McCollum, the veteran guard who replaced Trae Young as the Hawks' primary creator, scored 32 points including three consecutive late buckets. He hit a baseline jumper over OG Anunoby with 33 seconds left to put Atlanta up 105-103. He missed two free throws with 5.6 seconds left that would have sealed it, but Mikal Bridges missed a baseline jumper at the buzzer, and the Hawks escaped 107-106.
Game 3 in Atlanta was tighter and uglier. Dyson Daniels, the reigning Most Improved Player, applied suffocating full-court pressure on Brunson that disrupted New York's entire offensive structure. Jonathan Kuminga contributed off the bench. Jalen Johnson continued the pattern of playing beyond his statistical reputation. And McCollum hit another late basket to complete a 109-108 win.
"It's a long game. You've got to play to zero."
CJ McCollum, Atlanta Hawks, after Game 2 win over the Knicks, via Associated Press
The series odds have shifted considerably. Atlanta is now favored to advance past New York, a result that seemed improbable before the first tip. The Knicks have a real problem on their hands: their late-game execution has collapsed in multiple fourth quarters, Brunson's production has been inconsistent, and they are now in a must-win situation for Game 4 tomorrow, still in Atlanta, before returning home for Game 5.
| Series (Seed) | Status | Favorite to Advance | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| (3) Knicks vs (6) Hawks | Hawks lead 2-1 | Hawks | McCollum closing + Daniels defense |
| (4) Lakers vs (5) Rockets | Lakers lead 2-0 | Lakers | LeBron 23.5 PPG/10 APG; Doncic/Reaves out |
| (3) Nuggets vs (6) Timberwolves | Timberwolves lead 2-1 | Nuggets (barely) | Jokic 7-of-26 in Game 3 loss vs. Gobert |
| (1) Pistons vs (8) Magic | Magic lead 1-0 | Pistons | Orlando's play-in prep; Cunningham 39 in loss |
| (2) Celtics vs (7) 76ers | Tied 1-1 | Celtics | Edgecombe 30-10 in Game 2; Embiid return TBD |
| (4) Cavaliers vs (5) Raptors | Cavs lead 2-0 | Cavaliers | Mitchell/Harden/Mobley all over 25 in Game 2 |
LeBron James and the Shorthanded Lakers
Before the series began, the Lakers versus Rockets was the one matchup in the entire first-round bracket where the lower seed, Houston, opened as the betting favorite. The reason was straightforward: Los Angeles entered the playoffs without Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves, its two most dynamic offensive creators alongside James. The Rockets, a 52-30 team with Kevin Durant returning from a right knee bruise and Alperen Sengun anchoring the frontcourt, looked structurally superior on paper.
Paper has not survived contact with LeBron James in April 2026. The 41-year-old forward led the Lakers to a 107-98 Game 1 win while Durant sat out with his knee injury. In Game 2, with Durant back in the lineup, James delivered 28 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists as Los Angeles won 101-94 to take a 2-0 series lead heading into Game 3 in Houston on Friday night.
The Game 2 performance added historical weight to James's postseason resume. He now holds the records for most playoff PPG, RPG, and APG by any player over 40 in NBA history. The stat is not merely an age-adjusted curiosity. It reflects actual production in an actual playoff series against a 52-win team. Series averages through two games: James at 23.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists per game.
Durant scored 23 points in Game 2 but was effectively neutralized after halftime with three points and nine turnovers in the second half against the Lakers' switching defense. Marcus Smart, acquired this offseason and playing his first full playoff push in a Laker uniform, added 25 points and five 3-pointers in Game 2. Luke Kennard contributed 23.
"They started doubling me from possession one. I've got to do better and not put my teammates in bad positions when I'm swinging the ball. We're just not making shots, to be honest. We're not shooting the ball well. We're missing a lot of layups. I just think that's the difference in the game."
Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets, post-game press conference, April 21, 2026, via AP
The Rockets' path back into the series requires one of two things to happen: the offense gets significantly more efficient, or Durant takes over and the supporting cast does not implode in the fourth quarter. Houston shot 40.4 percent from the field in Game 2 and made only seven 3-pointers. Sengun has been good (20 points and 11 rebounds in Game 2), Jabari Smith Jr. has contributed 18 points, and Amen Thompson has been a factor. But the Rockets cannot go 40 percent from the field and expect to beat LeBron James in a playoff series, even a Lakers team missing its two other stars. For more on the injury picture that shaped this series before it started, see our earlier reporting on Durant's Game 1 absence and its structural implications.
Denver's Problem: Jokic vs. Gobert
The Denver Nuggets were supposed to be the West's most reliable program in the first round. Nikola Jokic is a three-time MVP who does not have bad playoff series. That assumption is now under genuine pressure.
Jokic shot 7-for-26 in Game 3, including 2-of-10 from three-point range, in a blowout loss to Minnesota that dropped Denver to 1-2. Rudy Gobert's physical, vertical-blocking interior defense disrupted Jokic's ability to operate from the elbow and the mid-post, the two spots where the three-time MVP does the bulk of his creation work. Gobert is not the player who neutralizes Jokic by being more skilled; he is the player who neutralizes Jokic by taking away driving lanes and forcing low-percentage pull-up opportunities.
Jokic still finished with 27 points and 15 rebounds, which is a testament to his competitive floor. But a player who shot 57.3 percent from the field during the regular season going 7-for-26 is not a variance anomaly. It is a matchup problem that has now appeared across multiple games in a series where Denver needs to win three of the next four to advance. Jamal Murray, who has delivered in playoff moments before, was publicly measured in his post-game assessment of Jokic's performance, but the underlying concern is real.
Denver head coach David Adelman, in his first postseason as the Nuggets' head coach after Mike Malone was replaced mid-season, has limited options. The Nuggets do not have the perimeter shooting depth to spread the floor and reduce Gobert's ability to pack the paint. And the Timberwolves are playing with the confidence of a team that genuinely believes it can advance. Anthony Edwards has been energized by the moment. Ayo Dosunmu broke an obscure statistical record in Game 3. The Nuggets-Timberwolves series has quietly become the most interesting in the West.
The Broader Chaos Picture
The Athletic's framing of this first round as historically chaotic is accurate on the metrics. Across both conferences, the number of series where the lower seed has either taken a lead or split the first two games is higher than the historical average at the equivalent stage. The combination of the Hawks' 2-1 lead over a 53-win Knicks team, the Lakers' 2-0 lead over a 52-win Rockets team as a fourth seed missing key players, and the Timberwolves' 2-1 lead over a Nuggets team with a three-time MVP creates a bracket picture that almost no pre-playoff projection model anticipated.
Part of the explanation is structural. The NBA play-in tournament now means that teams entering as seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth seeds have at minimum two high-pressure games before the bracket opens. The data on play-in teams in subsequent first-round series is starting to accumulate, and the directional finding is that the preparation effect is real. Orlando's current series against Detroit, where the Magic qualified via the play-in, shows the same pattern: the eighth seed played two playoff-intensity games before the bracket and entered Game 1 with their defensive assignments rehearsed and their rotations tight.
The Knicks' collapse specifically deserves its own analysis. Josh Hart said after Game 2, "In the playoffs you can't give away games." That is correct. New York has done it twice, once in regulation with the fourth-quarter collapse and once in Game 3 where Atlanta's defensive effort off Daniels disrupted the Knicks' entire ball-movement game plan. The Knicks are a team with real talent and real playoff experience, but they are being outcompeted in the fourth-quarter situations that determine first-round outcomes. That is a coaching and execution problem, not a talent problem, and it is correctable. But correcting it requires winning in Atlanta on Saturday, and that game is now a must-win.
For complete coverage of the Eastern Conference side of this first round, see our earlier breakdown of all four East series through the first two games. For context on LeBron and Bronny James making father-son history as the first duo to play together in a playoff game, see our feature on what that moment meant. For the background on Doncic's injury status entering the series, see our hamstring injury report.
What Comes Next
Three games in Friday night and Saturday will go a long way toward sorting out which upsets are real and which were variance. The Lakers visit Houston for Game 3 on Friday at 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video. If LeBron goes on the road with a 2-0 lead and his team's defensive structure intact, the series is effectively over regardless of Durant's health. The Rockets have not shown they can score efficiently enough to sustain a run over four games.
The Hawks-Knicks Game 4 is Saturday in Atlanta. New York needs a win to avoid a 3-1 deficit from which no team has ever come back in NBA history. The Knicks will have had additional preparation time on Daniels, and Brunson has been in high-pressure playoff situations before. But Atlanta now has the series's momentum, the home-court advantage, and a genuine belief in their system under coach Quin Snyder that did not exist at the start of the season.
Denver-Minnesota Game 4 is another must-watch. Jokic's adjustment to Gobert's interior presence will define whether the Nuggets can stabilize or whether the Timberwolves push this series to the brink. The first round is not over, but the chaos is real, and the bracket's downstream implications, for the Conference Finals, for the championship picture, for the league's narrative about parity, depend on how these next several games resolve. See our earlier preview of first-round matchup projections for how analysts saw each series before the bracket opened.
